Anticipating up to 5 significant hurricanes in 2025 - Stay alert and ready
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Waking up to the remnants of the tumultuous 2024 hurricane season, folks are bracing themselves as the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially commenced on June 1. Much like its immediate predecessor, this year's season is anticipated to be busier than the average.
The hurricane season kicks off annually on June 1 and concludes on Nov. 30. Before the season's inception, meteorologists at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a division of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, weigh in on the forthcoming storm activity.
For the 2025 season, the CPC's researchers predict a 60% likelihood of an "above normal" season, with the number of named storms ranging between 13 to 19. These storms will have winds of at least 39 mph, or 63 kph. Among these named storms, six to ten are expected to become hurricanes, with wind speeds of 74 mph, or 119 kph or higher. Even more concerning, between three to five of these hurricanes may evolve into major hurricanes, those categorized as Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale, indicative of sustained winds of 111 mph, or 179 kph, or higher.
Typically, a "normal" hurricane season would feature 14 named storms, seven of which would strengthen into hurricanes, and three that would reach major hurricane status. These tropical storms hold the potential to disrupt the lives of millions, according to NOAA leaders.
"It's been a grim reminder of the importance of forecasting," Laura Grimm, the acting NOAA Administrator, expressed. "The impacts of hurricanes don't just affect coastal communities—as we experienced last year with hurricanes Helene and Debby—the effects can be far-reaching." She underscored the significance of accurate forecasts for safeguarding lives and properties.
To determine the likely activity this season, meteorologists consider a multitude of factors. This year's prediction takes into account the continuation of neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, a likelihood of weak wind shear, and a potential rise in production from the West African monsoon, the region where most Atlantic hurricanes originate.
As the ocean temperatures persist at elevated levels and trade winds decrease, it provides an abundance of energy for the formation of tropical systems, while also reducing the risk of storms being disrupted during their formation. Moreover, the possibility of the West African monsoon shifting northward would create conditions conducive to the generation of tropical waves that can develop into powerful and long-lasting Atlantic storms.
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NOAA officials are confident that the 2024 storm season should serve as a reminder of the pivotal role of forecasting to better prepare people during hurricane season.
"We've never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather," elaborated Ken Graham, the director of NOAA's National Weather Service. "This outlook is a clarion call to action: prepare in advance. Take proactive steps now to be ready before a storm strikes."
It's vital to understand that NOAA's outlook is specific to the formation of storms and not a prediction for those that will make landfall. In early August, an updated forecast from NOAA's CPC will be released, taking into account the season's progress and the approaching climatological seasonal peak.
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