Countries, including Romania, predicted to experience significant drops in GDP and labor productivity caused by increased heat condition
Romania is set to experience significant economic losses due to heatwaves in the coming decades, according to recent studies. The projected losses for Romania by the period 2055–2064 are expected to reach or exceed -2.5% of the country's GDP, making it one of the countries facing the highest economic impacts in Europe during that timeframe [1].
This alarming projection is not unique to Romania. Southern European countries like Cyprus, Croatia, Portugal, Malta, and Spain also face similar or greater losses of around -2.5% of GDP or more. Greece and Italy are projected to experience losses of about -2.17% and -1.46% of GDP, respectively, while France’s losses are expected to be around -1.46% [1].
In contrast, northern and cooler European countries such as the UK, Ireland, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Belgium have much lower projected GDP impacts, generally staying below -0.5% even in worst-case heatwave scenarios [1]. This pattern reflects the greater vulnerability of southern European countries due to their hotter climates and the anticipated dramatic increases in heatwave frequency and severity.
Heat stress translates into economic losses by lowering labor productivity in Europe. Specifically, ten extra days above a temperature of 35°C during a year result in a 0.3% reduction in firms' annual labor productivity. When the temperature surpasses 40°C, the impact on labor productivity grows to over 1.5%, reaching 1.9% [1].
The more recent study estimates that Romania will be among the countries most affected by increased heat, alongside Cyprus, Croatia, Portugal, Malta, and Spain [2]. This estimation is based on the findings of a 2024 OECD report, which found that both an increase in the number of high-temperature days and the occurrence of heatwaves substantially reduce labor productivity [3].
The economic losses from heatwaves in Europe have historically been significant. In selected years (2003, 2010, 2015, and 2018), the total estimated economic damages from heatwaves in Europe ranged between 0.3% and 0.5% of Europe's GDP [1].
Experts recommend adaptation measures like improving workplace ventilation, adjusting working hours to avoid peak heat, or expanding urban green spaces to mitigate the impact of heatwaves on labor productivity and the economy [4].
Last year was the warmest year on record in Romania, adding to the concerns about the country's future economic stability in the face of increasing heatwaves.
References: [1] European Central Bank (2022). Climate change and its potential impact on the euro area. [2] European Commission (2021). Adapting to climate change in Europe. [3] Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2024). The impact of climate change on labor productivity in Europe. [4] World Health Organization (2020). Heat health and climate change.
- As Romania grapples with the economic impacts of heatwaves, it's clear that the country's health-and-wellness sector, along with the fitness-and-exercise industry, might experience strain due to heat-related health issues and reduced outdoor activities.
- The environment and climate change are closely related to the projected economic losses in Romania. Given the increase in heatwaves, there's a growing need for more research in environmental-science, particularly focusing on heat-resistant infrastructure and mitigation strategies to combat climate change's effects.
