Decline in EU Birth Rates Reaches New Heights, According to Data
The European Union (EU) is grappling with a significant demographic shift, as its population ages rapidly and the fertility rate remains well below the replacement level. In 2023, Malta recorded the lowest total fertility rate in the EU, with just 1.06 live births per woman, while Lithuania and Spain followed closely with 1.18 and 1.12 live births per woman respectively.
This trend is not new, as the largest annual decline in the EU's birth rate was recorded since 1961, with the number of births dropping significantly from 6.8 million in 1964 to fewer in 2023. The fertility rate in the EU currently stands at 1.38 live births per woman, significantly below the replacement rate of 2.07 needed to maintain population size.
Several factors contribute to this decline. Financial constraints, such as lack of job security, housing affordability, and insufficient childcare options, are major deterrents for many prospective parents. Uncertainty about the future, including economic and social stability, also plays a significant role. Social changes, including declining marriage rates and evolving lifestyles, are further contributing to lower fertility rates.
Europe's tightening immigration policies may also accelerate population decline by reducing the inflow of young immigrants, who otherwise help stabilize population numbers. The EU's statistical agency, Eurostat, reported the drop in births.
The implications of this demographic shift are far-reaching. By 2100, the EU population is projected to drop from 447 million to 419 million under current trends, and could decline further to 295 million without immigration. The proportion of those aged 65 and older is expected to rise from 21% to 36% by 2100, indicating significant aging.
This aging population will put pressure on labor markets and economic productivity, as exemplified by countries like Germany experiencing skilled worker shortages. An aging population will also increase demand for healthcare, often staffed by immigrant workers, further complicating workforce dynamics in sectors like health and social care.
With fewer workers paying taxes and more retirees drawing pensions, government finances will be stressed, potentially undermining pension systems and public services. To address this issue, EU governments are investing billions in incentives such as cash benefits, tax breaks, paid parental leave, and child benefits to encourage higher fertility rates.
France followed Bulgaria with the second-highest fertility rate in the EU in 2023, at 1.66 live births per woman, while Hungary had the third-highest fertility rate, with 1.55 live births per woman. However, the mean age at which women have their first child in the EU continued to rise, standing at 29.8 years in 2023.
In conclusion, the declining fertility rate combined with low immigration could lead to profound demographic shifts in the EU, challenging economic growth, labor market sustainability, and social welfare systems unless addressed by comprehensive policy measures.
Science and health-and-wellness sectors may face significant challenges as the European Union grapples with a demographic shift, with an aging population leading to increased demand for healthcare services. The rising proportion of retirees will put pressure on healthcare systems, which are often staffed by immigrant workers, necessitating innovative solutions for workforce sustainability.
