Decline in EU Birth Rates Reaching Record Highs, According to Data
In recent years, the European Union (EU) has been grappling with a significant decline in fertility rates, with the total fertility rate dropping from 1.46 in 2022 to 1.38 in 2023[1]. This trend has far-reaching implications for population growth and the labour market.
Several key factors are contributing to this decline. Economic constraints, such as a lack of affordable housing and childcare options, coupled with job insecurity, present major barriers for many individuals who desire to have larger families[1][3]. Job prospects and low wage expectations, particularly in Southern Europe, further exacerbate this issue[2].
Traditional gender roles also play a significant part in this decline. In regions like Southern Europe, despite gender equality in education and employment, women often bear the brunt of household responsibilities, limiting their ability to balance work and family life[2].
Demographic and migration trends are another factor. In Eastern Europe, emigration of young, economically active individuals significantly reduces the working-age population, contributing to a faster decline in fertility rates[2]. On the other hand, concerns about global issues, such as climate change and economic instability, also influence reproductive decisions, leading individuals to choose smaller family sizes[1].
The consequences of this declining fertility rate are profound. The EU is projected to experience a population decline starting from 2026, driven by low birth rates and aging populations[4]. This decline will significantly alter the age structure of the population, with a larger proportion of older individuals and fewer young people.
The labor force is expected to shrink by around 20.2 percentage points by 2070, resulting in roughly 42.8 million fewer workers[4]. This reduction will strain social security systems and challenge economic growth.
The decline in younger workers could also dampen innovation, as younger individuals are more likely to produce novel and groundbreaking innovations[2]. Reduced innovation could impact long-term productivity and economic growth.
Moreover, the decreased workforce-to-population ratio will put additional pressure on social security systems, potentially threatening the economic support for older populations[1][4].
To address these challenges, policy makers are considering strategies such as better education, increased participation of women in the workforce, and skilled migration to mitigate the effects of a shrinking workforce[4]. However, the recent hard-right gains in some EU governments have led to a crackdown on migration at a time of labor shortages.
In 1964, a record 6.8 million children were born in the EU, almost twice as many as in 2023[5]. The fertility rate in the EU is well below the "replacement level" of 2.1[6]. In 2023, Bulgaria had the highest total fertility rate in the EU, with 1.81 live births per woman, followed by France with 1.66, and Hungary with 1.55[6]. Malta had the lowest total fertility rate, with 1.06 live births per woman[6]. The mean age at which women had their first child in the EU increased to 29.8 years in 2023, up from 28.8 in 2013[7]. Eurostat, the EU statistical agency, reported the drop in births in the EU[8].
Despite a higher number of deaths than births, the EU's total population increased by 1.6 million to 449.2 million people in 2023, due to migration[9]. This trend underscores the importance of immigration in maintaining the EU's population size, even as fertility rates continue to decline.
References: [1] European Commission (2023). "Demographic Change in the EU." [2] European Parliament (2023). "Demographic Challenges and Their Implications for the EU." [3] OECD (2023). "The Economic Consequences of Declining Fertility Rates in Europe." [4] European Commission (2023). "Addressing the Demographic Challenge in the EU." [5] Eurostat (2023). "Births in the EU." [6] Eurostat (2023). "Total Fertility Rates in the EU." [7] Eurostat (2023). "Age at First Birth in the EU." [8] Eurostat (2023). "Decline in Births in the EU." [9] Eurostat (2023). "Population Growth in the EU."
The ongoing decline in fertility rates in the EU, as seen from 2022 to 2023, has raised concerns about the impact on population health and wellness, particularly women's health. In light of this, scientific studies are exploring the intersection of economic, social, and demographic factors influencing reproductive decisions in the EU. For instance, factors like job insecurity, household responsibilities, and migration trends are being studied for their potential effect on women's health and fertility.
