Devastating Loss: Europe Experiences 16,600 Deaths this Summer attributed to Global Warming
The summer of 2020 in Europe saw a series of heatwaves that took a significant toll on public health, according to a study published by Imperial College London on September 17. The study estimates that these heatwaves caused the deaths of 24,400 people across 854 cities.
The research, an example of "attribution science," aims to determine the extent to which extreme events are caused or exacerbated by human activities. In this case, the study found that if fossil fuel burning had not continued in recent decades, most of the 24,400 deaths in Europe would not have occurred.
The study's approach and results are becoming increasingly refined. It does not rely on the excess mortality actually observed in states but instead uses proven epidemiological models to estimate the expected mortality given the temperature levels observed. The researchers defined, for each city, the role of climate change in heat peaks as part of their analysis.
The health consequences of heatwaves have been underestimated as a public health risk, according to Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a co-author of the study. He emphasizes that heatwaves are "silent killers" and considered the most deadly extreme meteorological phenomenon.
The study found that 85% of excess deaths due to heat are found in the elderly population over 65 years old. This is particularly concerning, as people continue to work outdoors at temperatures above 40°C.
In France, the study estimates that the excess mortality due to heatwaves during the entire summer was 2,062 deaths. However, it also suggests that at least 760 deaths occurred in France due to two heatwaves this summer. The researchers found that climate change increased the temperature during heat peaks by an average of 2.2°C, with up to 3.6°C in some cities.
The report on heatwaves in Europe was co-authored by Professor Friederike Otto, a professor of climate science. It's important to note that the report was not reviewed by other researchers before publication as it aims to be a quick reaction to summer events.
A recent Australian study analyzed 249,546 death certificates on the island continent between 2016 and 2019 and found that 1,009 deaths over these four years are attributable to heat. This underscores the global impact of extreme heat events on public health.
As we continue to face the challenges of climate change, it's crucial to understand the impact of extreme weather events on our health and take steps to mitigate these risks. The Imperial College study serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for action.
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