Expanded earthquake warnings issued by experts in Istanbul, as surveillance activities are increased
Istanbul Braces for Potential Major Earthquake
Istanbul, Turkey, is situated on the North Anatolian Fault, one of the most active seismic fault lines in the world, placing it at high risk for a major earthquake. According to earthquake scientist Naci Gorur, the expected recurrence interval of major earthquakes on this fault segment is about every 250 years, and the last major earthquake occurred in 1766. This suggests that Istanbul is overdue for a significant seismic event [1][4].
To enhance earthquake preparedness and resilience, authorities are expanding Istanbul’s seismic monitoring network. Currently, the network operates 24 seismic devices across the city, measuring either the speed or acceleration of ground motion. Data from these devices allows officials to assess potential earthquake impacts in advance, playing a critical role in planning and preparedness for the expected Istanbul earthquake [1].
Experts like Sener Usumezsoy, however, argue that the Adalar fault and other segments often described as threats are not active. Usumezsoy also notes that past earthquakes in the area, such as the 1968 Demirci quake, happened on smaller fault lines that do not produce the scale of a 7.6 magnitude event [1].
Despite these reassurances, earthquake scientist Naci Gorur expects a major earthquake in Istanbul and the Marmara region. He urges municipalities to form six-person crisis teams, including coordinators for the public, infrastructure, building stock, ecosystem, and economy. In addition, Gorur suggests creating earthquake-resistant cities to prevent mass casualties [1].
Coastal residents are at a higher risk of acceleration and collapse in a possible earthquake, particularly in water-saturated, young soil that amplifies seismic waves. This means that the most severe destruction will occur on Istanbul’s European side [1].
Stress is building in other regions of western Türkiye, including areas between Manisa and Turgutlu, and the Alasehir and Sarigol region, according to Usumezsoy. He also points out that some models linking Bursa to the North Anatolian Fault are incorrect, and no such fault exists in Bursa’s southern zones [1].
Gorur calls on voters to demand seismic safety commitments from politicians, emphasising the importance of addressing this issue in the public discourse. Usumezsoy, on the other hand, states that Istanbul faces no imminent earthquake danger [1].
In recent years, large-scale efforts have been mobilized across Turkey, involving state institutions, ministries, municipalities, NGOs, and citizens, to coordinate rapid rescue, treatment, and provision of basic needs following earthquakes [3]. Additionally, reconstruction and retrofitting programs are actively ongoing in earthquake-prone areas to replace vulnerable structures with more resilient buildings [3].
In summary, Istanbul faces a major earthquake risk based on geological evidence, and ongoing measures include enhanced seismic monitoring, emergency coordination, and infrastructure resilience programs aimed at reducing the impact of future quakes [1][3][4]. Despite some experts' assurances, the probability of at least a 7.2 magnitude earthquake in Istanbul remains very high [1].
- Acknowledging the ongoing risk, Turkish scientists like Naci Gorur advocate for the formation of crisis teams, including coordinators for public, infrastructure, building stock, ecosystem, and economy, to address the impending Istanbul earthquake.
- In an effort to promote health and wellness, Istanbul's seismic monitoring network expansion includes measuring potential earthquake impacts on medical-conditions and health-and-wellness facilities.
- As the economy of Turkiye is closely interrelated with its environmental science, the anticipated seismic event in Istanbul might have significant economic consequences, necessitating strategic emergency preparedness.
- Recognizing the worldwide collaboration in addressing crisis situations, Istanbul could leverage the partnerships offered by organizations such as NATO to aid in post-earthquake recovery and rebuilding.
