New coronavirus infections reported by RKI reach 74,352, pushing the incidence rate to 442.1
In the latest report from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Germany recorded 74,352 new coronavirus infections on Friday morning, marking a 2.7% decrease compared to the previous Friday. However, the incidence rate, which measures the number of new cases per 100,000 inhabitants over a seven-day period, has increased from 439.2 to 442.1.
This seemingly contradictory trend can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, there's a time-lag in data reporting and case onset, meaning that hospitalizations and confirmed cases often occur several days after infection or positive tests. This can cause incidence rates to reflect infections from past days, not necessarily the current trend of new case detection.
Secondly, changes in testing and reporting practices can also influence the incidence rate. If testing decreases, fewer new cases might be detected and reported, while the calculation of incidence, which is based on case counts and population, may still reflect a relative increase when measured per 100,000 people.
Thirdly, population and regional differences play a role. Even if total new cases nationally go down, localized outbreaks can increase incidence rates in specific regions, affecting aggregate incidence calculations.
Lastly, the definition and calculation of incidence can lead to discrepancies. According to the RKI and German policy discussions, the hospitalization incidence (number of hospitalized per 100,000) has been adopted alongside case incidence to better guide measures. However, hospitalization rates lag behind reported cases by several days, causing discrepancies in trends.
Despite the decrease in new cases, the number of active cases in Germany is currently estimated to be around 925,800, an increase of 151,400 compared to the previous week. The number of deaths also continues to rise, with the RKI reporting 390 deaths within the last 24 hours, bringing the total to 102,568. Within the last seven days, there were 2,092 deaths, corresponding to an average of 299 deaths per day, which is the highest number ever recorded.
Photos of social distancing measures in public places continue to be a common sight, as the RKI and other health authorities closely monitor the number of new cases and deaths to guide their response to the ongoing pandemic.
[1] Source: Robert Koch Institute (RKI)
- The incidence rate increase might not necessarily reflect a surge in current new cases, as factors such as time-lag in data reporting, changes in testing practices, regional differences, and discrepancies in the definition and calculation of incidence can influence the numbers.
- Despite the decrease in new reported cases, the general news has been dire with record-breaking average daily deaths, surging active cases, and continuous increases in hospitalizations – hence the need for stringent health-and-wellness measures like social distancing and rigorous medical-condition monitoring to curb the other side effects of the pandemic.
