Rapid Decrease in Birth Rates and Its Potential Threats to Humanity: Insights and Concerns
In the intriguing essay "Goodbye, Youth?", Dr. Victor Kumar, a philosopher at Boston University, sheds light on a controversial topic. He remarks, "With right-wing pronatalists pushing for restrictions on abortions, punishing childlessness, and forcing women into traditional roles, it's clear they're trying to artificially boost birth rates by resurrecting outdated, patriarchal norms from the early 20th century... But just because the medicine is toxic doesn't mean the patient isn't sick."
Inevitably, the cacophony of misinformation and contradictory policies worldwide has made many of us overlook the dwindling birth rates. According to the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion, Russia has been experiencing a decline in birth rates since 2015, and the situation is at an all-time low in the last decade.
Victor Kumar contends that our predicament is as serious as history suggests, with no developed country recovering from a declining birth rate and reaching the replacement level, where each couple has two children to maintain the population. While the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts that world population shrinkage won't begin until the end of the century, the impending risks have already captured the attention of researchers.
An independent demographer, Alexei Raksha, offers a less alarming forecast. He anticipates advancements in healthcare technology, improved living conditions, and a more comfortable urban environment for the elderly. Changes in social infrastructure, such as repurposing vacated buildings for elderly care centers, are also expected. Moreover, the pension system is expected to evolve, necessitating the elderly to work longer hours. Raksha is cautiously optimistic about the scenario, considering the rise in life expectancy brought about by improved population health.
According to Senior Researcher Elena Churilova, the primary concern is the health and functional status of the elderly. If they are healthy, they can remain active contributors to the economy and society for a prolonged period. If not, aging populations might worsen social and economic problems. Churilova also warns about the increased risk of elderly isolation, the need for infrastructure adaptations, and the rise of conservative policies catering to the elderly.
Meanwhile, Canadian evolutionary scientist Joseph Henrich warns that a shrinking population threatens the so-called "collective intelligence" - larger societies' ability to innovate, re-evaluate ideas, and drive intellectual progress, from fundamental research to technological advancements. American philosopher John Dewey underscores the crucial role of youth in transforming not just the economy but the cultural landscape as well. He laments, "Imagine the 1960s without rock 'n' roll, the 1970s without Hollywood authors, the 1980s without street art, or the 1990s without hip-hop... Every major change in human history - technological, cultural, and moral - has been driven by youth."
With these grave warnings in mind, Kumar calls for a calm, balanced, and comprehensive approach to tackle the issue. He argues that coercive measures are ineffective and are met with resistance from the population. Instead, innovative solutions that support high birth rates while preserving valuable social achievements are crucial. Positive motivation may not be the answer, as numerous measures to support fertility either have short-term effects or no impact on fertility. Demographers point out that cultural and value components play a greater role in determining the number of children in a family, making it challenging to influence population growth. However, Churilova stresses the importance of creating conditions that encourage families to have the desired number of children. Raksha concurs, emphasizing the need for action against the decline in fertility to avoid the withdrawal of the state from the global stage.
Despite the dire forecasts, some experts see reasons for optimism: governments can reassess their human potential development policies, taking steps to eradicate poverty and improve education to maintain economic stability. Additionally, automation of production could be a byproduct of labor shortages as businesses implement robots and artificial intelligence instead of humans. However, Elena Churilova reminds us that a world with more elderly than young remains a distant prospect, and demographic trends may change to prevent such a scene altogether.
In his concluding essay, Kumar stresses the importance of curiosity and collaboration in tackling the decline in birth rates. He urges us to explore innovative solutions and encourage more sustainable and equitable child-rearing. While we cannot predict the future, Kumar suggests that a cultural revolution—such as collective child-rearing, workplace childcare, and community support for families—should not be dismissed.
- Dr. Victor Kumar advises a balanced approach, advocating for innovative solutions that support high birth rates without compromising social achievements.
- Joseph Henrich, a Canadian evolutionary scientist, asserts that a shrinking population could diminish the collective intelligence and stifle intellectual progress.
- In the realm of health and wellness, the functional status of the elderly is a primary concern, as healthy seniors can contribute significantly to the economy and society for an extended period.
- Mental health is a crucial aspect of this discussion, as Alexei Raksha anticipates the evolution of the pension system to require the elderly to work longer hours.
- In the context of parenting, Elena Churilova insists on creating conditions that encourage families to have the desired number of children.
- As for education and self-development, John Dewey highlights the transformative role of youth in cultural landscapes, emphasizing their contributions to technological, cultural, and moral changes throughout history.
