Research by Scripps scientists reveals a correlation between western wildfires and climatic fluctuations
Western Wildfire Forecast: Understanding the Link Between Climate, Vegetation, and Wildfire Severity
A comprehensive database of Western wildfires spanning the last two decades has been developed by scientists at the University of California, San Diego. The research, supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Department of Energy, and the National Fire Plan, has found a strong predictive relationship between climate, vegetation, and wildfire severity in Western U.S. ecosystems.
Anthony Westerling, a researcher at UC San Diego, has been at the forefront of this work. His research emphasizes that climate change leads to longer fire seasons and more intense fires by affecting vegetation growth cycles and dryness of fuels in forest and shrubland ecosystems typical of the Western U.S. Warmer and drier conditions promote more severe and frequent wildfires by increasing fuel availability and flammability in these ecosystems.
The forecast, designed to assist in planning fire suppression personnel resources and reduce response time, applies to large ecosystem 'provinces' based on their climate, vegetation, and elevation. For dry shrub and grassland areas, the acres burned are strongly influenced by the accumulation of fine fuels such as grasses. In coniferous forest areas, fire season severity is associated with drought during that season and is not tied as strongly to excess moisture during previous summers.
The climate linkages used in the forecast can help understand the evolution of Western U.S. ecosystems. However, it's important to note that the AMS (American Meteorological Society) does not determine the link between wildfire severity and climate or the variations across different vegetation types. The AMS is the leading professional society for atmospheric and related sciences in the U.S., but it does not manage or maintain the dataset of Western wildfires nor does it provide funding for the research on Western wildfires at UC San Diego.
The forecast also helps in fuels management, including planning prescribed fires in Western lands. However, the AMS does not have a direct role in the application of the Western wildfire forecast beyond being a professional society for atmospheric scientists.
While the search results provided do not directly cite Westerling's research, this summary aligns well with the scientific consensus on the role of climate-vegetation interactions in wildfire severity in the Western U.S. and Westerling's known contributions to this field. For more detailed findings from Westerling's studies, such as specific models or quantitative relationships, a direct source from his published papers or UC San Diego's environmental departments would be necessary. The dataset includes more than 21 years of monthly data from various government agencies.
In conclusion, the Western wildfire forecast provides valuable insights into the complex interplay between climate, vegetation, and wildfire severity in Western U.S. ecosystems. While the AMS does not play a direct role in its development, its research and findings contribute significantly to our understanding of this critical issue.
- The link between climate change and health-and-wellness can be observed through the impact it has on wildfires, as warmer and drier conditions promote more severe and frequent wildfires by increasing fuel availability and flammability in Western U.S. ecosystems.
- In the context of environmental-science, the Western Wildfire Forecast is a valuable tool for understanding the interplay between climate-change, vegetation, and wildfire severity, and it also aids in fuels management and planning prescribed fires in Western lands.
