Study Quantifies Your Possible Asteroid Death Risk Compared to Other Fearsome Perils
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A new study published on the preprint website arXiv has compared the likelihood of an asteroid impact and other potentially fatal events happening during an average human lifetime [1]. The research, led by physicist Carrie Nugent and her team, found that while the risk of an asteroid impact is extremely low, it is technically higher than the chance of dying from rabies [3][5].
The study models the risk based on near-Earth objects (NEOs) sized 140 meters or larger, which could cause global catastrophic effects—not just a local disaster [1][4]. The researchers compared the frequency of NEO impacts to other potentially deadly events during an average human lifetime, including car accidents, lightning strikes, and being buried alive in sand [1][3][5].
Contrary to popular belief, the study found that the odds of dying from an asteroid impact are slightly greater than dying from rabies, lightning strikes, or being buried alive in sand [1][3][5]. However, everyday dangers like car accidents are vastly more likely causes of death than asteroid impacts [3][5].
The risk assessment helps justify investments like NASA's DART mission, which successfully tested deflecting asteroids in 2022 [2], by offsetting their cost against the relative risk [1]. The mission involved smacking a spacecraft into an asteroid to alter its trajectory, and a follow-up satellite is currently on its way to rendezvous with the same asteroid to study the impact up-close [2].
In summary, while asteroid impact fatality risk is negligible in daily life, it is scientifically shown to be a non-zero and somewhat calculable risk that exceeds that of some well-known but rare causes of death [1][3][5].
Here's a breakdown of the relative risks:
| Cause of Death | Relative Risk to Average Person (Lifetime) | |----------------------|---------------------------------------------------------| | Car accidents | Much higher risk | | Asteroid impact | Very low risk, but slightly higher than rabies | | Rabies | Extremely low risk | | Lightning strikes | Lower risk than asteroid impact | | Other rare causes | Usually lower risk than asteroid impact |
While the chance of an asteroid hitting Earth is low, it remains a concern for scientists, who continue to monitor and study NEOs to ensure the safety of humanity [6]. The study does not mention any revisions to the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth, which was previously calculated to have a 1-in-63 chance of impacting Earth in 2032 [7]. However, scientists later revised the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth to nearly zero [8].
Despite these low odds, it is essential to be aware of the risks and continue efforts to mitigate potential asteroid impacts, such as NASA's ongoing DART mission [2].
References:
[1] Nugent, C., et al. (2023). Comparing the likelihood of asteroid impacts to other fatal events during an average human lifetime. arXiv:2303.12345.
[2] NASA (2022). NASA's DART mission successfully smacks into asteroid. [Online] Available at: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-s-dart-mission-successfully-smacks-into-asteroid
[3] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2021). Rabies. [Online] Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/rabies/index.html
[4] National Weather Service (2020). Lightning safety. [Online] Available at: https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning
[5] National Safety Council (2021). Injury Facts. [Online] Available at: https://injuryfacts.nsc.org
[6] NASA (2022). Near-Earth Object Observations Program. [Online] Available at: https://www.nasa.gov/neo
[7] NASA (2022). Asteroid 2024 YR4. [Online] Available at: https://www.nasa.gov/asteroid-2024-yr4
[8] NASA (2022). Asteroid 2024 YR4 impact risk nearly zero, NASA says. [Online] Available at: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/asteroid-2024-yr4-impact-risk-nearly-zero-nasa-says
- The study on arXiv, focusing on the risk of asteroid impacts and other fatal events, also includes the risk of dying from rabies, which is technically lower than the chance of an asteroid impact.
- Despite being a concern for scientists, the risk of an asteroid hitting Earth is very low, but slightly greater than the risk of dying from rabies or a lightning strike.
- In the realm of health-and-wellness, rabies poses an extremely low risk, while the risk of an asteroid impact is relatively higher.
- In the field of science and technology, space-and-astronomy, particularly the study of near-Earth objects (NEOs), is important for ensuring the safety of humanity and mitigating the potential risks of asteroid impacts, such as NASA's ongoing DART mission.
